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Course outline

Forecast & plan

Scenario planning: best, base & worst case

Planning off a single forecast is how a good month becomes overconfidence and a bad month becomes panic. Model three cases and pre-decide what you'll do in each.

A single point forecast is always wrong, and it leaves you with no plan when reality diverges. Modeling best, base, and worst on the few variables that actually move the business, with pre-committed tripwires and cash runway under each, turns a bad quarter into a plan instead of a crisis. AI builds all three cases from your numbers, inventing none.

Planning off a single "here's what will happen" forecast is how a good month becomes overconfidence and a bad month becomes panic. Model three cases on the few variables that actually move your business, and pre-decide what you'll do in each before emotion gets a vote.

What you'll learn

  • Pick the 3-4 variables that actually swing the outcome
  • Build three cases, not twenty
  • Compute cash runway under each case
  • Pre-commit a tripwire per case