Research before you commit
Product selection criteria: margin, shipability, repeat
An exciting product idea can still be a business that never makes money. Score every candidate on margin, shipability, repeat-purchase, seasonality, and competition before you commit.
The gap between a fun idea and a real business is a few hard criteria checked before you commit. Run each candidate through a scoring checklist, contribution margin, shipping economics, repeat-purchase potential, seasonality, and competition intensity, so you pick with numbers, not vibes. This is the scorecard; how you choose a direction lives in the pick-a-product note, read them together.
Product selection criteria: margin, shipability, repeat
A product idea can feel exciting and still be a business that never makes money. The difference is whether it scores on a few hard criteria before you commit.
Run every candidate through a scoring checklist, contribution margin, shipping economics, repeat-purchase potential, seasonality, and competition. Pick with numbers, not vibes.
Fastest path: one prompt, end to end
AI prompt — paste into ChatGPT / Claude
You are a product-selection analyst. Score only with numbers I provide or that you can source. Do not guess prices, weights, or demand. Candidate products: [list 3-5 ideas] What I can find per candidate: est. cost, likely retail price, weight/size, is it consumable/refillable Do this: 1. Score each candidate 1-5 on: contribution margin potential (retail minus unit cost minus fees), shipping economics (small/light = good, big/heavy/fragile = bad), repeat-purchase potential (consumable or one-and-done), seasonality (year-round vs spike), competition intensity. 2. Show your math for margin and flag any figure you had to estimate, then ask me to confirm it. 3. Rank the candidates and explain the top pick's trade-offs. 4. Warn me about any candidate that scores high on excitement but low on margin or shippability. If you can't get a real cost, weight, or price, leave it blank and ask me, do not invent it. Output: scored table (5 criteria) + ranking + the top pick's trade-offs + a caution.
Or do it in 5 steps
- Score contribution margin first. Retail price minus unit cost minus platform/payment fees. If there's no healthy margin per unit, no amount of volume fixes it, this is the criterion that kills more good-looking ideas than any other.
- Check shipping economics. Small, light, durable ships cheaply and survives transit; big, heavy, or fragile eats your margin in freight and breakage. A great product that costs $18 to ship is often a worse business than a boring one that costs $3.
- Favor repeat-purchase potential. Consumables and refillables (coffee, supplements, skincare) let one won customer buy for years; one-and-done items (a mattress) mean you're always paying to acquire again. Repeat potential is what makes the CAC math work later.
- Sanity-check seasonality and competition. Year-round demand beats a December spike you can't smooth; and a niche with a few beatable players beats one owned by a giant. Score both so you're not blindsided after you've committed.
- Pair it with your product strategy. These criteria filter candidates; how you choose a direction in the first place lives in the pick-a-product note, read them together, this is the scorecard, that's the strategy.
Worked example (labeled): three candidates, scored 1-5.
Artisan candles: margin 4, shipping 2 (fragile, heavy wax), repeat 4, seasonality 3, competition 2. Specialty coffee: margin 3, shipping 4, repeat 5, seasonality 5, competition 3. A designer mirror: margin 5, shipping 1 (huge, breakable), repeat 1.
The mirror's fat margin is a trap, freight, breakage, and zero repeat sink it. Coffee's boring-looking scores make it the real business.
Score before you commit, and let margin and repeat outvote excitement; the exciting product that can't ship or reorder is a hobby, not a business.
Do
- ✓Score contribution margin first — retail minus unit cost minus fees; no healthy per-unit margin kills the idea.
- ✓Favor consumables and refillables — repeat purchase is what makes the CAC math work later.
- ✓Score all five criteria (margin, shipping, repeat, seasonality, competition) on one 1-5 table.
- ✓Make the AI show its margin math and flag any figure it estimated, then confirm it yourself.
Avoid
- ✕Don't let a fat headline margin fool you — a $30 mirror that costs $18 to ship and never reorders is a trap.
- ✕Don't pick a big, heavy, or fragile product — freight and breakage eat the margin you thought you had.
- ✕Don't build on a December-only spike you can't smooth — year-round demand beats a seasonal peak.
- ✕Don't enter a niche a giant owns — a few beatable players beats one unbeatable incumbent.
Quick tips
- Compare on the same axes — score every candidate before you rank, not on which one you saw first.
- This is the scorecard; how you choose a direction lives in the pick-a-product note — read them together.
- Weigh shipping economics against margin: a boring $3-to-ship product often beats an exciting $18-to-ship one.
Brand in focus
Death Wish Coffee — a product that scores on repeat, not on excitement
DeathWishCoffee.comReached national distribution and a Super Bowl ad within a few years of launch
Death Wish Coffee fits because it's the 'boring but scores' pick this note argues for: coffee is small and light (great shipping economics), a consumable people rebuy for years (high repeat), and year-round rather than seasonal. Its differentiation is a sharp brand angle on a commodity, not a novel product. Watch-out: coffee's competition score is real and crowded, so the brand had to win on positioning and repeat — the lesson is that margin plus repeat plus shippability can carry a category a giant already sells.